Québec, July 25, 2022. – The Institut de la statistique du Québec released today a 2022 update of its population projections for Québec (2021 to 2066) and its regions (2021 to 2041). The new projections are based on a continuation of the recent trends observed in terms of fertility, mortality and migration. Highlights from this update are discussed in the Bulletin sociodémographique available on the Institut’s website.
Growth prospects revised downward for Montréal and Laval
This update reveals that 15 of Québec’s 17 administrative regions have had their growth prospects to 2041 revised upward. The two remaining regions, Montréal and Laval, have had their projected populations revised downward.
These revisions can be explained by the most recent data on interregional migration (which reflect a reality that is less favourable to large urban centres) and by the regional distribution of permanent and temporary immigration (slightly less concentrated in Montréal). This means that the new demographic trends, some of which are related to the COVID-19 pandemic, are gradually redefining the future prospects of Québec’s regions.
Nevertheless, major regional trends remain
Although these new population projections are less favourable to large urban centres and more favourable to remote regions, the main regional demographic trends remain:
- The highest growth rates projected by 2041 are still in the regions adjacent to Montréal (+21% for Laurentides, +16% for Lanaudière, and +16% for Montérégie). The Estrie region now has one of the highest projected rates (+17%).
- The regions furthest away from large centres still have the lowest projected growth, and sometimes even a projected decline, as is the case for Côte-Nord (-10%). The Montréal administrative region (i.e. the Montréal Island) stands out with a very low growth rate projected between now and 2041 (+3%), but if the whole metropolitan area were taken into account, its growth would be the same as the provincial average (+10%).
- Population aging remains more pronounced in regions far from large centres, and the potential labour pool (those aged 20–64) could decline significantly by 2041 in the regions of Abitibi-Témiscamingue (-10%), Bas-Saint-Laurent (-11%), Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean (-12%), Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine (-14%), and Côte-Nord (-22%).
Updated data by census metropolitan area (CMA) and regional county municipality (RCM) are also available. Data by municipality will be released in the coming months. Subscribe to e-mail alerts on the Institut de la statistique du Québec’s website to be informed of upcoming releases on population projections.