Québec, July 30, 2025. – The Institut de la statistique du Québec released today its 2025 population projections update for Québec and its regions, which show that the population could stabilize around 9.2 million over the next few decades. Over the shorter-term, the population should decline by about 80,000 (-0.9%) by 2030, mostly because of an expected reduction in temporary immigration.
In addition to three base scenarios (reference, low-growth and high-growth), several analytical scenarios are included to reflect the various possible ways the Québec population could evolve. The new scenarios take into account the most recent data available, particularly in terms of fertility and immigration. We now expect slightly fewer births and international migration flows, which has led to a downward revision of the population projections from last year, especially for younger age groups.
Additional highlights for this release are discussed in the publication Perspectives démographiques du Québec et de ses régions, mise à jour 2025 available on the Institut’s website.
Capitale-Nationale region should see strongest growth
All Québec regions saw their growth prospects revised downward relative to the 2024 projections, but several of them are still headed towards continued growth. Capitale-Nationale remains the administrative region with the strongest growth projected between 2021 and 2051 (+21%), while the neighbouring region of Chaudière-Appalaches has the second-highest projected growth (+17%).
Results for these two regions are impacted by the projected population change for the Québec greater metropolitan area (CMA), as the Québec CMA has the highest projected growth for all types of regions combined (+23%), along with the Drummondville CMA.
Lower growth prospects for Montréal
In contrast, the Montréal administrative region stands out with low, if not negative projected growth by 2051. It is now among the regions where a decline in population
(-4.5%) is expected between 2021 and 2051. For the Montréal CMA, projected growth is slightly positive at +2.6%. On the shorter-term, between 2025 and 2030, the Montréal region and CMA could see respective population declines of -9.2% and -3.3%, mainly because of an expected drop in the number of temporary immigrants.
Little change in demographic weight of regions
Despite the disparities in projected growth between regions, their demographic weight in the province should not change significantly from 2021 to 2051. This weight will decrease slightly from 23.5% to 20.9% for the Montréal region and from 50.5% to 48.5% for the Montréal CMA. Conversely, the Québec CMA should see its demographic weight increase from 9.9% to 11.3%.
Population should decrease by 2030, but not housing needs
Projections on the number of private households and people in collective dwellings have also been updated, and some results may seem surprising. While the new reference scenario shows a -0.9% population decline for the province between 2025 and 2030, it also suggests a +0.8% increase in demographic housing needs over the same period. This result is due to changes in the age structure of the population and differing housing needs by age, which should lead to strong growth in housing needs for seniors, especially for people living in collective dwellings.
Key takeaway: Projections are an exercise in possibilities
Population projections are not previsions or predictions. These data provide a neutral, objective perspective on the various possible ways demography could evolve in Québec.
View projections by age group and scenario:
- Interactive graphs and detailed data – Québec population
- Interactive graphs and detailed data – Population of regions
- Detailed data – Private households and collective dwellings
Projections by RCM and municipality based on these scenarios will also be released in the coming months. Subscribe to email notifications on the Institut de la statistique du Québec’s website to be informed of upcoming releases on population projections.
The Institut de la statistique du Québec produces, analyzes and disseminates official, objective and quality statistical information on various aspects of Québec society. It is responsible for conducting all statistical surveys of general interest. The relevance of its work makes it a strategic ally for decision makers and an essential source of information for all those wishing to learn more about Québec.