Québec, October 7, 2024. – Based on the latest demographic trends, Québec’s current population of 9 million could rise to 10.6 million by 2071. Population growth projections, both overall and for the 20–64 age group, have been revised upward, but the challenge of demographic changes remains. In the coming decades, the number and proportion of seniors, particularly the oldest among them, will rise significantly due to the aging of the baby boomer generations.
The Institut de la statistique du Québec today releases its population projections for Québec, Perspectives démographiques du Québec et de ses régions, 2021-2071, an in-depth exercise performed every five years based on current census data. It provides simulations of how the population might evolve based on various assumptions concerning fertility, mortality and migration (interregional, interprovincial and international).
This new edition revises immigration assumptions upward and fertility and life expectancy assumptions downward. Moreover, trends in interregional migration and the regionalization of immigration favour growth in southern Québec regions, with the exception of Montréal and Laval.
Population observed and projected by scenario, Québec, 1991–2071
Source
Institut de la statistique du Québec.
After anticipated stability over the next three years, population growth could resume
Despite the expected drop in the number of temporary immigrants in the coming years, according to the reference scenario, Québec should not experience a decline in its total population. However, it should see almost no population growth between 2024 and 2027. Thereafter, population growth is expected to resume at an annual rate of approximately 0.5%, slowing to stabilize at around 0.3% per year beyond 2040.
Additionally, starting in 2027, deaths are projected to outnumber births in Québec, leading to a negative rate of natural increase. Population growth would then be solely driven by migration gains, assuming that Québec welcomes 65,000 permanent immigrants per year. Note that several other permanent and temporary immigration scenarios are presented to illustrate the range of potential outcomes.
A sharp rise in the 65 and over population still expected by 2031
In 2071, the senior population is expected to exceed 2.6 million. Its proportion of the total population would rise from 20% in 2021 to 24% in 2031, and then to 25% in 2071.
The number of people 85 and over could practically triple from 209,000 in 2021 to 583,000 in 2071. With baby boomers reaching this age group, almost all of this increase would occur by 2050. Québec could have 18,500 centenarians in 2071, compared to around 2,300 in 2021, despite a lower rise in life expectancy than previously forecast.
The 20–64 age group is headed for sustained growth over the medium and long term
After returning to pre-pandemic levels by 2027 due to an expected drop in non-permanent residents, the population aged 20–64 could then resume steady growth, rising from 5.1 to 5.9 million between 2021 and 2071. The share of this group in the total population could drop from 59% in 2021 to 56% in 2031, then remain relatively stable.
The population in collective dwellings is set to double
Projections of people living in collective dwellings are provided for the first time in the 2024 edition of Québec’s population projections. This type of housing includes private seniors’ residences, long-term care homes (CHSLD) and other living environments with a high concentration of seniors.
As the population ages, the number of people in collective dwellings in Québec could more than double, from 190,300 in 2021 to just under 400,000 in 2071. Most of this strong growth is expected to occur by 2051. This trend is also explained by the fact that baby boomers are reaching the age of 75, when living in collective dwellings becomes more common.
Stronger growth in most southern Québec regions
In 2051, the population of 12 of Québec’s 17 administrative regions will be higher than in 2021. The biggest increases could be seen in the Capitale-Nationale (30%) and Laurentides (27%) regions, followed by Estrie, Centre-du-Québec, Chaudière-Appalaches, Montérégie and Lanaudière (between 22% and 25%).
Projected population change in the administrative regions between 2021 and 2051, reference scenario, Québec
Source
Institut de la statistique du Québec.
Outaouais, Nord-du-Québec and Mauricie are expected to experience growth (between 17% and 19%) over the Québec average (16%). Of the regions adjacent to Montréal, only Laval (11%) is projected to have population growth below the Québec average.
The Montréal administrative region, which corresponds to the island of Montréal, is expected to have relatively modest growth (3%) between 2021 and 2051. From 2021 to 2024, Montréal saw strong growth due to an influx of temporary immigrants, but a downturn could occur by 2027 as this population is forecasted to decrease. The Montréal metropolitan area (CMA) should nonetheless experience relative growth of 13%, and the highest population growth in sheer numbers (+560,000).
Slight decline in most regions far from Montréal
By 2051, Québec’s four easternmost regions, along with Abitibi-Témiscamingue, could have fewer inhabitants than in 2021. The losses would be relatively minor in Bas-Saint-Laurent (-0.1%), Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean (-1%), Abitibi-Témiscamingue (-2%) and Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine (-3%). However, the population decline in Côte-Nord is expected to continue, with a more significant drop (-13%).
People 65 and over could account for a third of the population of some regions by 2051
By 2051, the 65 and over age group could represent about one third of the population in five administrative regions: Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine (33%), Bas-Saint-Laurent (30%), and Estrie, Mauricie and Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean (28% each).
The proportion of seniors in the Nord-du-Québec (14%), Montréal (21%) and Capitale-Nationale (23%) regions can be expected to remain below the Québec average figure in 2051 (24%).
The proportion of people aged 20–64 to drop in all regions
In 2051, every region should have a lower proportion of people aged 20–64 compared to 2021. Most of this change is expected to occur by the early 2030s. Montréal is projected to remain the region with the largest proportion of people aged 20–64 (60% in 2051, compared to 63% in 2021), and Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine the region with the lowest (50%).
Compared to previous forecasts, the projected number of people aged 20–64 was revised upward for several Québec regions. This shift is largely attributed to evolving patterns in the regionalization of permanent and temporary immigration, which is increasingly extending outside the greater Montréal region.
For more information
Read the full report (PDF, 4,7 Mo) (in French only)
Upcoming releases
Going forward, the Institut will update these demographic projections on an annual basis in order to take into account ongoing changes in trends observed in several demographic phenomena.
Demographic projections by municipality and regional county (RCM) municipality will be released in the coming months. Subscribe to receive email notifications about updates from the Institut de la Statistique du Québec.
Depuis 25 ans, l’Institut de la statistique du Québec produit, analyse et diffuse des informations statistiques officielles, objectives et de qualité sur différents aspects de la société québécoise. Il est le responsable de la réalisation de toutes les enquêtes statistiques d’intérêt général. La pertinence de ses travaux en fait un allié stratégique pour la prise de décision et une source d’information incontournable pour toutes les personnes qui désirent en connaître davantage sur le Québec.